Heat pump quote checklist

You’ve got two envelopes on the table. One is $12,000 and one is $18,000, and they both say “heat pump.” You can’t tell which is the better job until you know what each bidder measured, because a model number and a dollar amount is a catalog page.

Check each bid against this list. Heat pump vs furnace is the decision to buy; this list is how you tell whether the bid is real.

1. Did they measure this house?

Ask for a written heating and cooling load (Manual J, or they should name the equivalent). Square-footage rules of thumb are how people buy a machine that’s too big, short-cycles, and still leaves the back bedroom cold.

If the house is drafty, the next dollar often belongs in the attic, not in a bigger outdoor unit. Envelope work should be in the bid or clearly left out; the weatherization guide covers that order.

2. What happens to the ducts, or which rooms get wall units?

If they reuse the existing ducts, did anyone check leaks, size, and whether the cold rooms even have return air? A “changeout” on leaky ducts feels like the old system with a new logo.

If they’re putting indoor units on the walls (mini-splits), you need how many rooms, where the lines run, and where the condensate goes. A four-head plan is a different product than a one-condenser swap, and you can’t compare those two prices until you know which house each one assumed.

3. What does it still heat on your coldest nights?

The cooling sticker (SEER2) and heating sticker (HSPF2) are lab weather. You want capacity at the outdoor temperature your town actually hits. Cold-climate equipment exists, and a quote that only lists cooling efficiency hasn’t answered the winter question.

4. Is the breaker box in the price, or a surprise later?

You want space for a breaker, wire size, a disconnect, and a clear note on whether a panel upgrade is included, excluded, or “we’ll see when we open it.” “We’ll see” is how a $14,000 job becomes $19,000 in week two, so put a number or a hard exclusion on it now.

5. What’s inside the number?

Permits, the pad, hiding the lines, thermostat, hauling the old stuff, startup, and refrigerant should be named. If labor warranty is separate from parts, they should say so. Factory labor coverage often requires their factory-trained installer, and that belongs in the bid, not in the driveway.

6. Who files the rebate, and for which year?

Who submits the utility rebate, and what “placed in service” date they’ll document. Don’t bake a dead federal credit into 2026 math. The IRS 25C window ended for qualifying property placed in service after December 31, 2025.

IRS: Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit

7. Do you have two more bids that share the same scope?

If one number is 40% cheaper, find the missing line. If one is 40% higher, find the extra line. Same load, same duct plan, same electrical exclusions, or you’re comparing different jobs.

Three made-up bids, so you can see the failure modes

Bid A, $11,900. “3-ton 18 SEER2 heat pump, changeout, existing ducts.” No load, no winter capacity, electrical “as needed,” rebate “we’ll help.” This bid is unfinished. The change order will be the panel, the duct repair, and the extra wall unit for the addition nobody measured.

Bid B, $17,400. Load attached (heating 34 kBTU at 10°F, cooling 28 kBTU). Duct leakage test quoted as an add. Capacity table at 10°F. Panel upgrade excluded at $0 with a sentence that the existing 200-amp box has two spaces and the load calc fits. Labor warranty 2 years if they install; parts 10. You can argue with this bid because the assumptions are written down.

Bid C, $24,800. Four wall units, no ducts. It looks like Bid B lost until you notice Bid B assumed ducts that dump 30% into the attic. If the ducts are that bad, C might be the honest number, or you weatherize and stay with two heads.

You can’t compare A to B until A has a load.

Lines that mean you should keep shopping

• “We always put in 3-ton for this square footage.”
• Cooling sticker, no heating capacity at design temperature.
• Mitsubishi vs Carrier as a personality test instead of a spec sheet.
• “Utility rebate included” with no program name.
• A same-day price if you sign before they see the attic.

After you pick someone

Ask for the equipment list with the official model numbers (AHRI), who pulls the permit, and who pays if the load was wrong and you need another indoor unit. If there’s backup heat, get the outdoor cutoff temperature in writing.

Then take a week. A heat pump hangs around for 15 years, and the checklist is so that week is informed.